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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."