Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The mean count of daily killings each month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent official data. However, security experts have advised that murder figures could fail to point to enhanced countrywide safety.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This information was provided by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen during these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest number of homicides were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an seemingly steeper drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key pillars of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, security analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to correctly identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it might obscure periods when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Using the per-day average renders spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst concluded.