Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.