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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.